Analysis of top-flight football is a complex thing at the best of times, and early in the season it’s impossible to make predictions of upcoming game outcomes without relying on data generated in the previous season. That’s not necessarily the worst thing in the case of established clubs returning for another run at the title, but it’s often less than helpful when dealing with newly promoted sides that are stepping up from a lower league. In this latter case, historical statistics can be seriously misleading.
Literally In A Different League
A few key data points can be safely discarded as relevant when a team gets promoted and has to face a fresh set of opponents come the new season, with possession being one of them. Even a side that dominated prior to promotion, holding onto the ball for the majority of the match, will see this stat slide as soon as they begin playing against top-flight rivals.
That’s not to say possession will remain low indefinitely post-promotion. Rather, it takes teams time to find their feet, and even then, it’s still important to accept that last season’s data is obsolete. Checking out a site for soccer betting will show just how much of a difference there is between a side that cruised to victory in the Championship yet struggles once promoted to the Premier League, for example.
A Scoreline Saga
Apart from having possession metrics fall through the floor, newly promoted teams can also have a much harder time putting the ball in the back of the net as soon as they go toe to toe with established sides. Defenders in the upper echelons of the football world know how to block shots, while goalkeepers are also far more elite and less liable to unforced errors.
In other words, a team that managed to achieve a high expected goals per game stat in its promotion campaign is very unlikely to repeat the same trick when it's finally dealing with competitors that are equipped to minimise their scoring chances.
The Set-Piece Surprise
Despite some data not travelling well between seasons when a promotion occurs, there is one thing which underdog new arrivals can bring to the table that their established competitors will have a harder time shaking, and that’s set-piece execution. A side that’s well drilled in corners and free kicks close to the box will have a better time translating this into success once they step up, although it’s only a more useful data set to consider in comparison with the all-but-irrelevant stats on possession and scoring.
Similarly, when a promoted team begins playing games against high-flying opponents, it also needs to contend with the fact that it will no longer be the one dictating the pace of play. Suddenly having to play catch-up to a bigger, better-funded side is physically challenging as much as it is mentally fatiguing. Fans whose interest is in betting on football are better off waiting to see how untested sides settle into the swing of the league, as early games will be subject to high variance.
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