There's the First Goal Scorer bet, the Anytime Goal Scorer bet, and the Last Goal Scorer bet, which is what we'll be talking about today. Many experienced bettors like this specific bet because the odds are usually better, and it makes the end of a game even more exciting.
In this article, we will look closely at how the Last Goal Scorer bet works, how it's different from other similar bets, and, most importantly, what strategies you can use to pick winners more often. If you are looking to elevate your football betting game and unlock value in this niche market, read on.
What is the "Last Goal Scorer" Bet?
The Last Goal Scorer bet is pretty simple: you're betting on a player to score the very last goal in a game. It doesn't matter who scores the best goal or plays the best; all that matters is which player scores right before the game ends.
The end of the game usually means the end of the regular 90 minutes, plus any extra time the ref adds on. Understanding this precise definition is the foundation of successful football betting in this market.
The Last Goal Scorer bet is different from betting on a player to score anytime. With Anytime Goal Scorer, you just need your player to score at some point in the game. But with the Last Goal Scorer, they have to score the final goal.
Because getting the exact timing right is tougher, bookmakers give you better odds than if you were betting on a player to score anytime. This high-risk, high-reward nature is precisely what draws many astute football betting enthusiasts to this proposition.
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Key Betting Conditions
To make sure your bets are right and paid out properly, you need to know the exact rules for betting on the Last Goal Scorer. While slight variations may exist between different betting sites, the general principles of football betting in this category are largely universal.
The 90-Minute Rule
The most important thing to remember about Last Goal Scorer bets is what period counts. These bets almost always pay out based on what happens in the first 90 minutes, plus any extra time the ref tacks on for injuries and stoppages.
If someone scores during extra time (the extra 30 minutes in cup games) or in a penalty shoot-out, that goal doesn't count for your bet. So, if you're betting on a cup game and think the last goal will happen in the 105th minute, make sure you're looking at the Last Goal Scorer in Extra Time market.
It's usually a separate bet from the regular 90-minute one.
The Own Goal Exclusion
What happens if the very last goal in a game is when a player accidentally scores on their own team? In almost all football betting scenarios, own goals do not count for the purposes of the First, Last, or Anytime Goal Scorer markets.
If the last goal of a game is an own goal, whoever scored the goal before that for the team that's attacking wins the bet. So, say the score is 2-1, and then someone accidentally scores on their own team making it 3-1, the person who made the score 2-1 is the Last Goal Scorer.
If the game ends with no score, then usually all bets for Last Goal Scorer lose.
The Non-Starter and Substitution Rule
Here's something cool about the Anytime Goal Scorer market compared to the First Goal Scorer: what happens if your player doesn't start. Basically, if the player you picked doesn't even get on the field, you get your money back – the bet's off.
But, if they come in as a substitute before the final goal, your bet is still good. This is something to think about when you're making your picks, since attacking subs that come in late have a decent chance of scoring that last goal.
So, if you pay attention to team strategies and who they sub in when, the Last Goal Scorer market can be really interesting. This insight can provide an edge in your overall football betting strategy.
How to Pick the Last Goal Scorer
To do well betting on the Last Goal Scorer, you can't just guess. You need to really look at how teams play, what players usually do, and how the game's going. Here is a detailed breakdown of the strategic factors to consider to improve your predictions.
1. The Late-Game Attacking Powerhouse
To make a good LGS prediction, it's most important to figure out which team and players will likely be the most aggressive attackers at the end.
Team Trailing: When a team is down by just one goal, the coach usually gets risky in the last 15-20 minutes. They'll bring in more attackers or have defenders push up during corner kicks and free kicks. Because of this, players on the losing team often get better chances to score late in the game.
The In-Form ‘Closer’: Some strikers or attacking midfielders are known for scoring late goals. You could call them the team's closers or super-subs. They often do well against tired defenses when the game gets a little crazy near the end. Look into a player's past to see how often they've scored in the last 15 minutes of games. This crucial data is often overlooked in general football betting.
2. Analysing Substitution Patterns and the Super-Sub Factor
Late in a game, managers often bring on their best attacking players from the bench to take advantage of tired defenders. These super-subs are great bets to score the last goal, and because they usually don't start, the odds on them scoring can be pretty good.
Track Bench Players: Find those players who usually start on the bench but often score after the 70th minute. Their energy advantage against tired defenders really helps them get that last goal.
Targeting Attacking Subs: If a coach swaps one attacker for another who's basically the same, that new player is likely to score. And if they take off a defender or defensive midfielder to put in another attacker, they're clearly going for goals, which makes one of the forwards already on the field a good pick to score. This requires some live betting knowledge or pre-match analysis of substitution tendencies, a key component of effective football betting.
3. The Penalty and Set-Piece Factor
Late in close games, penalties are common, often resulting from desperate tackles inside the box. Knowing your team’s designated penalty and free-kick taker is a huge advantage.
Penalty Takers: A player who takes penalties automatically has an inflated chance of scoring the last goal, as a late penalty can be a high-probability event. Even if they haven't been prolific from open play, the odds for the penalty taker are always worth a look.
Defenders and Set-Pieces: In the frantic closing stages of a match, corners and free-kicks are often launched into the box. Defenders and tall midfielders who come up for these set pieces, like centre-backs, are valuable long-shot options. While the probability is lower, the massive odds offered for these players in the LGS market can lead to huge payouts, making them tempting punts for the experienced football betting player.
4. Head-to-Head and Defensive Analysis
The opposition’s defensive tendencies in the final stages of a match are just as important as your team's attacking prowess.
Defence Under Pressure: Is the opposing team known for conceding late goals? Do they struggle to maintain their defensive shape when under sustained pressure in the final quarter of the game? A team with a consistently poor defensive record in the last 15 minutes of matches is a goldmine for LGS picks against them.
Player vs. Opposition History: Some players simply have a knack for scoring against specific teams. While this is less predictable for the 'last goal' specifically, a player with a history of scoring against an opponent is generally in a better mindset to deliver late in the game. Look for trends in football betting history related to these match-ups.
The Risks and Limitations of the Last Goal Scorer Bet
While potentially very rewarding, it is crucial to approach the Last Goal Scorer market with an awareness of its significant inherent risks. This is not a market for the faint of heart, and responsible football betting always requires acknowledging the volatility.
The Problem of the Single Outcome
The most obvious limitation is that your bet hinges on one single moment. Unlike an Anytime Goal Scorer bet, which remains live for the entire 90 minutes, the Last Goal Scorer bet is lost the moment a different player scores the final goal. This all-or-nothing nature is what drives the high odds and requires a disciplined staking plan.
The Unpredictability of Goal Timing
Football is a game of fine margins. A player might miss a sitter in the 89th minute, and a defender might score an unbelievable 95th-minute bicycle kick. The exact timing and source of the last goal are notoriously difficult to predict with absolute certainty.
Even the best accurate predictions rely on probability, not guaranteed outcomes.
The Case for the Late Clean Sheet
A high-scoring match is obviously the ideal scenario for the LGS market. However, if you've backed a player to score the last goal, and the game ends 0-0, your bet is a loser. You are essentially betting on two outcomes simultaneously: that your chosen player will score and that their goal will be the final one.
This combination makes the Last Goal Scorer bet one of the more challenging avenues in football betting.
Last Goal Scorer in Accumulators and Scorecasts
For those seeking even greater returns, the Last Goal Scorer can be integrated into more complex bets, exponentially increasing the potential payout. These are advanced tactics in football betting.
The Last Goal Scorer Accumulator
An accumulator, or 'acca,' involves combining multiple Last Goal Scorer selections across different matches into one single bet. The odds for each selection are multiplied together, leading to incredibly high potential returns.
For instance, picking three players to be the Last Goal Scorer in three separate matches. The risk, however, is immense, as a single losing selection means the entire accumulator fails. Only use small stakes for such high-risk football betting strategies.
The Power of Information and Data
In the modern world of football betting, information is the currency of success. To make truly informed LGS bets, you must rely on advanced statistics and up-to-the-minute team news. Relying on gut feelings is a recipe for long-term losses; reliance on data is the pathway to profit.
Utilising Advanced Metrics for Goal Predictions
Look beyond simple 'goals scored' data. Focus on metrics that indicate late-game scoring potential:
Expected Goals (xG) by Time Segment: Use sites that break down a team’s xG production (the quality of their scoring chances) into 15-minute segments. Teams that generate a high xG after the 75th minute are excellent targets.
Shots on Target (SOT) in the Closing Stages: Players who are still generating a high volume of SOT late in the game are good LGS candidates. Fatigue often leads to rushed shots, so a player who maintains composure is invaluable.
Player Minutes Played: Check how many minutes your chosen player has played in the preceding weeks. A player who is 'rested' but starts or is brought on late will have more energy and better focus, making them a stronger late-game threat. This deep level of analysis supports the highest-level football predictions.
The Importance of Team News and Live Betting
The value of your LGS bet can change drastically based on pre-match and in-play developments.
Lineup Confirmation: Always wait for the confirmed team lineups. An injury to a team’s regular penalty taker, for instance, instantly makes the stand-in penalty taker a stronger LGS selection, especially if their odds haven't been fully adjusted by the bookmaker.
In-Play Dynamics: The LGS market is ideally suited for live betting. If a game remains 0-0 heading into the 80th minute, and a manager brings on a pacey winger against a tired full-back, the winger's LGS odds instantly become highly attractive. Waiting for the final substitutions and the flow of the game before placing your bet can significantly boost your strike rate for an accurate prediction site level of insight.
Wrapping Up
The Last Goal Scorer market is thrilling and offers some of the highest potential returns in football betting. The dramatic nature of winning the bet in the final seconds of a match is unmatched. However, because of the elevated risk and the difficulty of the goal predictions, it is essential to approach this market responsibly.
Always set a strict football betting budget for your high-risk bets and never chase losses. Think of figuring out player swaps, how tired teams are, and who takes penalty kicks as something you're always learning about. If you get how the betting works and use data to plan, you can get ready to cash in on good odds.
It's a rush when you nail the final score of a game. Any good prediction site will tell you to be smart, and we agree. Mastering the Last Goal Scorer market is a true test of a bettor's patience and analytical skill, a rewarding challenge for any enthusiast of football betting.
People Also Ask About Last Goal Scorers in Football Betting
Guess who's going to score the final goal of the game.
In a 'last team to score' bet, you choose which team you think will score the final goal before the game starts. Basically, you're betting that the team you pick will be the one that scores last.
Players bet on whether the total goals scored will land inside a certain range. Say the range is 2-3 goals; people can bet if the final score will be either 2 or 3 goals. This type of bet is cool because it puts the focus on how much scoring there is in the game instead of who wins.
This kind of bet is pretty much what it sounds like: you bet on who you think will score first. It's common in football, but you can do it in other sports too, like hockey and rugby – in rugby, it's called betting on the first try scorer, but it's basically the same idea.
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